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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.