Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
  • The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.

Holly Copeland
Holly Copeland

A passionate content strategist with over a decade of experience in diversity-focused writing and digital accessibility advocacy.